Here we study Tony Stewart’s history at Dover. In 24 starts at the track, he has won twice and has a worst finish of 41st. He averages an 11.83 finish.
Using statistical analysis, we can say with 99% confidence that in a given Dover race Stewart will finish somewhere between 5th and 19th:
Sample Size:
Sample Mean:
Sample standard deviation: 11.98
Confidence level: 99%
Standard error of mean: 2.44
Degrees of Freedom: 23
Lower Limit:
Upper Limit:
In the following frequency table, we see how often Stewart has finished in the Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 in his history at Dover:
Frequency Freq. %
Top 5: 10 0.42
Top 10: 15 0.63
Top 20: 19 0.79
We can see that Stewart finishes in the Top 5 42% in of the races at Dover. Likewise 63% for the Top 10 and 79% for the Top 20.
It is worth looking to see if Stewart’s performance in the Spring Dover race is any different than his performance at Dover overall.
Sample Size:
Sample Mean:
Sample standard deviation: 14.34
Confidence level: 98%
Standard error of mean: 4.14
Degrees of Freedom: 11
Lower Limit: 2.16
Upper Limit:
Frequency Freq. %
Top 5: 5 0.42
Top 10: 7 0.58
Top 20: 9 0.75
In this example, the data was run at a 98% confidence level. At the 99% confidence level, the upper limit was .55 which is outside of the possible best finish of 1, so the data was adjusted slightly. We can see that the data compares very favorably.
We can conclude that the spring race will produce a similar result as any given race at Dover. We can expect a finish between 2nd and 25th with a 42% chance at a Top 5, a 58% chance at a Top 10, and a 75% chance at a Top 20.
